Z-F.C coincidence?


Zodiackiller.com Message Board: Other Suspects: Z-F.C coincidence?

By ZK (Zander_Kite) (a010-0720.stbg.splitrock.net - 64.196.42.212) on Sunday, April 29, 2001 - 04:45 pm:

When discussing Ted Kaczynski's viability as a suspect, the word "coincidence" invariably? surfaces. And Jake you're right I probably would enjoy x17. The only problem for those suggesting coincidences rule the ZFC connection is that coincidences defy odds. For example, the odds of drawing 2 cards of the same kind are 17 to 1(1/1 x 51/3). The odds of drawing 2 kings are 221 to 1 (52/4 x 51/3).
After reviewing the 340 symbol code, I've attempted to estimate the odds defied of Ted's name being there in the fashion it is(THEODOR in first line, KAZINSKi in the last line (both undecoded)), if only coincidence. I've taken into account all factors including frequency of symbol use, for example Z is used only 3 times, K is 11 times etc., as well how well the names are communicated.
In the last line 2 K's are necessary, you also need an A, 2 I's or 2 Y's, an N, an S, and a Z to make KAZINSKI. After all consideration, I've estimated the odds for the last line at 500 to 1. My estimate for THEODOR is 50 to 1 on the first line. In my opinion the odds defied if only coincidence would be about 25,000 to 1.
If these odds seem too unbelievable, a second or third opinion etc. is fine, perhaps a mathemetician on the board can give his or her opinion ??

By Jake (Jake) (spider-tj021.proxy.aol.com - 152.163.213.181) on Monday, April 30, 2001 - 03:33 pm:

ZK: Reducing the 340-character cipher to binary through consistent (if subjective) means, the first 13 characters spell "ERAHO" in Morse code (That's "OHARE" backwards, ZK). "MIKADO" comes in on line 7, and "BERRYESSA" appears on lines 19-20 with no misspellings or missing letters. The section "FDV [backwards J]" in the Mt. Diablo code, when translated to Morse, is the exact reverse of "OHARE." Do you have the odds on that?

--Jake
http://members.aol.com/Jakewark
"This is the Zodiac Speaking..."

By ZK (Zander_Kite) (a010-0711.stbg.splitrock.net - 64.196.42.203) on Monday, April 30, 2001 - 08:33 pm:

Jake thanks for responding, I thought this new topic might end up blank. I'm not familiar with these binary decodings. You do mention "subjective" means ?. Also the odds on this Ohare decoding would be reduced because there are alot other techniques you could use to draw out ohares name or someone elses. The reason I find my observation so compelling is that it is no nonsense. Its that the first name and last name = the first line and last line that makes it appear not to be a coincidence, along with the other factors. I also didn't include that the first letter of the middle section of the code is J. But I believe if my odds are correct, low, or close then its strong circumstancial ? evidence against Ted. Like I said there are alot of mathematical ways of toying with the code(countless actually). You mention the first 13 characters- what would the upside down v count as ? Perhaps you can give me some details on translation of the first 13 into ERAHO.

By Roger Redding (Roger_Redding) (user-33qs1r9.dialup.mindspring.com - 199.174.7.105) on Monday, April 30, 2001 - 10:15 pm:

Also, the same system, cheating just a leetle, yields MIKE O from the 13 character cypher.

Jake, I do believe yer backsliding. Have you been attending your monthly PA meeting? We may have
to schedule an intervention.

010

By Jake (Jake) (spider-wq041.proxy.aol.com - 205.188.200.163) on Tuesday, May 01, 2001 - 03:01 pm:

ZK wrote:
"You do mention "subjective" means ?"

Here, the Penn method is based on the number nine. This is for a variety of reasons, the easiest to explain being the nine crossed circles in the text, the last of which is nine characters from the end, immediately before the signature, "ZO[delta]AIK." The ninth character of the alphabet is the pronoun I.

Penn assigns a value of 1 to letters whose alphabetical quantities are nine-multiples (that is, I and R) as well as to geometric forms (square, circle, semicircle, triangle, cross, and right angle, but suspiciously not V), on the grounds that their angular totals are divisible by nine (90, 180, and 360 degrees). Everything else is assigned a 0.

The decryption of the first line of the cryptogram, then, is 00100100001110010. The Morse for ERAHO, with 1 as dash and 0 as dot, is 0 010 01 0000 111 -- the first 13 characters of this line. "MIKADO," "BERRY," and "ESSA" appear in the same fashion.

And it just goes on and on. My point here is very similar to yours, in that I think that you can draw just about any name you'd care to from the Zodiac cryptograms, including Tom's, depending on the rules you set.

Roger wrote:
"Jake, I do believe yer backsliding."

I have this rubber band on my wrist and I've been snapping it every time I open T17. The skin is turning blue-black lately, with an awful yellow ring... Doctor, is that normal?

--Jake
http://members.aol.com/Jakewark
"This is the Zodiac Speaking..."

By Ed N (Ed_N) (spider-mtc-tj062.proxy.aol.com - 64.12.106.47) on Tuesday, May 01, 2001 - 04:31 pm:

Here's another example of how Penn plays fast and loose with the facts, from Times 17, p. 130:

I would like to note in passing that BY RAIN is an anagram for BINARY, but that is a minor point.

Here, Penn is referencing the "my name is" letter, specifically where Z wrote:

I was swamped out by the rain (italics mine) we had a while back.

Note how Penn conveniently and conspicuously neglected to include the word "the." He couldn't, because he wanted to make a "minor point," and the facts did not jibe with his theory, so the logical thing for him to do was alter this fact to make it fit. And all that for a "minor point." He'd have been better off not making that point at all. It casts doubt on how he chooses to interpret things, and calls into question anything he says. If he'd bothered to read Zodiac, page 145, he could have seen an actual transcription of the passage in question. But, oops! On page 297 of Times 17, Penn claims he bought a copy of Zodiac, and we may infer from page 120 that he did so in April 1986 or shortly thereafter. In fact, on page 298, he quotes from page 155 of Zodiac! If he had read that far into the book, surely he would have read Graysmith's transcription of the "my name is" letter and "by THE rain" just TEN pages before!

If he can't even get something as simple as "by THE rain" right, how can we trust his interpretation of something more complex, like his binary "solution" to the 340-cipher? Poor Penn. Can't he do anything right?

In closing, I'd like to note that Penn includes a photographic reproduction of the "my name is" letter on page 129 of Times 17, with "by THE rain" plainly visible for all too see. Oops. How pathetic. I'm surprised he didn't use white out to erase that incriminating piece of factual evidence.

By Ed N (Ed_N) (spider-mtc-tj062.proxy.aol.com - 64.12.106.47) on Tuesday, May 01, 2001 - 04:37 pm:

It's a little off topic, but when it comes to Penn, I can't help myself. Back to the Z-F.C. coincidence...

By Mike (Oklahoma_Mike) (csdu-2473.communicomm.com - 24.143.24.73) on Tuesday, May 01, 2001 - 11:31 pm:

Roger Redding wrote: "Also, the same system, cheating a little, yields 'MIKE O' from the 13 character cypher. As I originally posted as 'MIKE from Oklahoma' I guess I must be added to EdN and several other posters here as a Zodiac Suspect!. I have alibi's for most of the Zodiac killings, but what may interest Howard is this: I went to L.A. for 2 weeks or so in 1969. Shortly after my arrival, the Tate-Labianca murders occurred. I returned to Oklahoma, the Manson killings stopped!
Coincidence? LOL

By ZK (Zander_Kite) (a010-0680.stbg.splitrock.net - 64.196.42.172) on Wednesday, May 02, 2001 - 06:56 am:

This is the reason I attempted to set odds on Teds name being in the code like it is. To seperate it from decodings that are forcefit or too simple. The ERAHO decoding is interesting but also it is weak and forcefit. The decoder needs to seperate the R,L,I and O. He gives the O,L as 360,90 but if he needed zeroes he could count them as 12,15. He could also use the backward P as a 9 if he needed a one. And yes those V's may have become triangles if needed.
My observation is much more straight forward. You only have to allow for the colored O's to be O's and the symbol resembling a capital I to be a capital I. Zodiac uses the letters THEODORPPLLVKiG, and KAZINSKiMHOP on lines of the code. This becomes extremely interesting when you see they match first and last name/code. Then the first letter of the middle ot the code is J which is 56-1 on that. Now how much more interesting does it become when this name is a top suspect in the case( maybe i can spin too). Further, the code lines are 17 length. But I guess that's the point of this topic, is it coincidence ??

By Douglas Oswell (Dowland) (proxy-dover.mednet.af.mil - 199.251.67.253) on Wednesday, May 02, 2001 - 07:55 am:

One thing that complicates this exercise is that the name Theodore Kaczynski has so many of the necessary letters for "the Zodiac." Maybe coincidence; I don't know. I find it suspicious, but since so many others write it off as coincidence I've tended to downplay it over the years.

By Howard Davis (Howard) (ont-cvx1-4.linkline.com - 64.30.217.4) on Thursday, May 03, 2001 - 01:35 am:

Mike-I passed your info along to Vince Bugliosi-and to Manson and he told me ya done good-but he thought you oakies were a little sloppy!

By Mike (Oklahoma_Mike) (csdu-2473.communicomm.com - 24.143.24.73) on Thursday, May 03, 2001 - 09:53 pm:

Howard--Hah! I'm glad you took it in the spirit
intended! I actually was in L.A. during that time, my only real visit there (other than layovers at LAX). I remember that the whole situation was so freaky even the locals, such as my relatives I was visiting, were weirded out.
At least I have alibis for the Zodiac crimes!

By Zander Kite (Zk) (a010-1020.stbg.splitrock.net - 64.196.37.4) on Tuesday, April 16, 2002 - 09:23 pm:

I have this theory about the intials F.C, though I will admit it's very speculative. Okay, before Kaczynski and FC, there was Metesky and FP. This is serious business, naming yourself, it's historical and permenant. To me "Freedom Club", it's kinda soft. And frankly, it sounds made up. Metesky's FP stood for "Fair Play", but that guy was a soft touch anyway. My theory is that in the beginning, Kaczynski approached his Unabomber identity in the same fashion as The Zodiac. He was an individual terrorist.... signing his bombs with FC. But I believe FC originally meant "F rom zodia C". He was distancing himself from the Zodiac case, philisophically and strategically, but not so much as to totally abandon his past. The bombs were From zodiaC. He feared authorities making a Z/FC connection, so at a later time adopted the strategy of making FC a terrorist group. "From" became "Freedom" "C" Club.

By Douglas Oswell (Dowland) (199.251.68.84) on Wednesday, April 17, 2002 - 05:38 am:

Interesting take, Zander. The idea of using initials might also have come from one of Kaczynski's favorite novels, "The Secret Agent." In that book, "FP" stood for "Freedom of the Proletariat," the slogan of the anarchists who were intent upon "blowing up the prime meridian." (Shades of Mt. Diablo!) I don't know if Kaczynski was aware of Metesky, but he was certainly aware of "The Secret Agent."

One thing that has always puzzled me is the October 5 postcard where Zodiac uses the letters "Fk." ("There are reports ... closing in on me, Fk I'm crack proof.") Could this have comprised an early use of the "FP," "FC" theme?

By Sylvie (Sylvie14) (spider-th023.proxy.aol.com - 152.163.213.53) on Wednesday, April 17, 2002 - 09:38 am:

I always though he was just abbreviating the F word.

By Douglas Oswell (Dowland) (170.philadelphia08rh.16.pa.dial-access.att.net - 12.90.31.170) on Wednesday, April 17, 2002 - 10:01 am:

Could be, Sylvie, but (1) he never used the word in any other context, and his use of vulgarities was almost nonexistent; and (2) people who abbreviate the "F" word usually indicate letter omissions with a series of dashes or asterisks, i.e., F**k or F***, or F--k. Then, too, that particular expletive doesn't really fit into the context of the statement. However, I don't discount the possibility.